Revised 2020 Election Predictions
Pressures on Democrats Rise
Now it’s getting interesting. We have heard Robert Mueller’s testimony. We’ve seen the President’s tweets about the “squad” and the Democratic response. And we had the two nights of debates among Democratic candidates for President in Detroit.
My updated predictions are:
- Center-Left Coalition (48%) (-1%)
- Radical Middle Breakout (5%) (stable)
- Right-Nationalist Coalition (47%) (+1%)
Essentially, the last week has helped confirm two things. First, the chances of a quick knock-out of the Trump Administration through devastating revelations on Russian collusion and successful Impeachment are extremely remote, reducing the opportunity for a Radical Middle Breakout. Second, it is increasingly clear that very influential segments of the media and the business establishment continue to wish Medicare-for-all and other elements of the Warren-Sanders structural change agenda would disappear from the center spotlight in the public debate. Particularly, in the first debate, CNN’s hosts deliberately elevated John Delaney’s critiques of Medicare-for-all to a level not warranted by the former-congressman’s poll-numbers or fundraising success. There is a continued pattern of elite worry about key planks of a Center-Left coalition being “too radical” and therefore a political liability for Democrats. Never mind that “too radical” for a politically-centrist school bus driver in Iowa is different from “too radical” for a “post-partisan” elite journalist.
Certain other things have not changed. Joe Biden has not lost his early lead in polls, bolstering the hope of those who wish to build a more narrow coalition to defeat Trump on style-points, rather than a transformative economic plan. This evidence of continued opportunity for a Radical Middle Breakout scenario causes me to keeps my prediction for that scenario stable. Also, the President’s approval ratings have not budged through the recent weeks, meaning his low-40-percent approval numbers will survive tweet-fueled controversies such as the attack on the “squad” and Representative Elijah Cummings (D-MD). Thus, on balance, the Right-Nationalist Coalition should be seen as slightly more likely to be successful and re-elect Trump in 2020 than when I looked at it last month.
What next? Elizabeth Warren’s poll numbers coming out of the debates this week will be important. Many pundits were impressed by her performance. If she begins to eat into Biden’s lead, and in particular begins to erode his support among Black Southern voters key to victory in Super Tuesday primaries, then I will update the probabilities of a Center-Left coalition unseating Trump upwards largely at the expense of the Radical Middle Breakout. The probabilities of a Center-Left coalition victory are not the same as the probabilities for a victory of a Warren or Sanders candidacy. A Center-Left coalition could form around any number of candidates, including Biden, depending on how the primaries develop and on trends in elite opinion and shifts in the national and international economy. It all depends on how candidates respond to events and trim their sails. What is necessary is a prevailing sense that without credible proposals to fix big problems such as climate change and inequality, victory over the Right-Nationalist agenda is impossible. That consensus has not yet emerged.
Business Strategy Note: My tracking of earnings releases by big chemical companies is revealing serious evidence of weakness in the global economy, particularly in demand for components used to manufacture autos and electronics. These headwinds in demand for tangible goods are made worse by the uncertainty over trade inspired by Trump’s brand of economic nationalism. There continues to be great worry about the Trump agenda in corporate board rooms. It is reducing management’s appetite for new capital spending. These worries will likely influence the evolution of politics this year in surprising ways. If Trump resolves trade issues with major US trading partners such as China and Mexico, the economic elite may be willing to sit the election out and let Trump win. If the disruption to global supply chains becomes worse, interest in an alternative to Trump that restores US commitment to lead the “liberal international order” will increase.
